They haven’t played anybody.
They haven’t been tested.
Those arguments no longer hold when it comes to Georgia, which earned its first statement win of the season Saturday night at Alabama — coincidentally on the same day that No. 1 Texas lost to rival Oklahoma.
“We’re not dead,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said after the game. “We’re going to be OK. We’ll get back up off the mat.”
Not before a few teams step over the Longhorns to move up in the latest top-12 projection. Week 6 provided plenty of shake-ups in what was the most consequential week so far, with Oregon losing an ugly game to surging UCLA, Indiana getting tested at Nebraska and LSU falling in overtime to a much-improved Kentucky team. It was the third time in AP poll history that at least three top-10 SEC teams lost on the same day, according to ESPN Research.
The result?
A new No. 1, of course. And a trickle-down effect that follows.
Based on historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here’s a look at what the College Football Playoff selection committee might do if the rankings were today.
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Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs finally added a statement win to their résumé to complement what everyone has seen on film — the most complete team in the country. It was a close matchup in Tuscaloosa that went down to the wire and included a controversial non-call late in the game on what looked like pass interference against the Bulldogs, but for Georgia to earn a road win against a top-10 SEC team changed the playoff picture. Georgia’s résumé also got a slight boost Saturday afternoon when Oklahoma beat then-No. 1 Texas in the Red River Rivalry game, giving the Sooners their biggest win of the season. Prior to Saturday night, Georgia’s 41-13 drubbing of a downtrodden OU team was its best win.
Why they could be lower: Miami looks even better than last year, when it played for the national title. The Hurricanes were on a bye, though, so it’s highly unlikely they will earn the top spot without a win against a ranked opponent unless enough committee members simply believe they’re the best team in the country. Which it might be. Miami is No. 1 in scoring offense and No. 1 in scoring defense. It also wasn’t a flawless performance for Georgia on Saturday night, as the Bulldogs had one turnover and allowed six plays of at least 20 yards, their most in a game since 2024 against Texas.
Need to know: Georgia in its next two games should be favored against Auburn and Florida, and if the Bulldogs can avoid an upset, they will be undefeated heading into the first ranking of the season. If Georgia can hang on to the top spot through Selection Day, it will benefit as the No. 1 seed this year gets to pick its CFP quarterfinal bowl.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Ole Miss. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia at least an 80% chance to win each of its remaining games.
Why they could be here: The Canes had a bye week but moved up after Texas lost, which bumped the Longhorns and Ohio State down. The Canes don’t have a strong enough win to stake a claim for the top spot, but they have three road victories to help separate them from other contenders, even if they’re not against ranked opponents. The victory at Wake Forest (5-1) would probably get more credit in the room than it does from the public, and although Clemson has struggled this season, the Tigers are above .500, which is something the group considers. The biggest factor, though, would be the wow factor — Miami is playing at a consistently elite level and oozing talent on both sides of the ball. The Canes have been statistically dominant, and the eye test matches the stats. The selection committee also considers common opponents, and while Miami and Notre Dame both walloped Stanford, scoring at least 45 points and holding the Cardinal to no more than seven, the committee might give an edge to the Canes for doing it across the country in the season opener.
Why they could be lower: Notre Dame has a case for the No. 2 spot, with one of the top strength of record metrics in the country — just ahead of Miami. Notre Dame also has a slight edge in total efficiency and defensive efficiency.
Need to know: With Pitt losing at home to North Carolina on Saturday, the Panthers are likely to drop out of the top 25, which means Notre Dame might be the only ranked opponent the Canes face during the regular season unless Duke or Wake Forest finishes in the committee’s top 25. That won’t matter if Miami wins the ACC and locks up a spot, but if the Canes lose the only game they have against a ranked team, it could impact their seeding. Miami won’t face Notre Dame until after the first CFP ranking is revealed Nov. 3. ESPN’s FPI projects both teams will be undefeated heading into that game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 59% chance to win at home. It’s the only game on Miami’s schedule it is not projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Irish had no problem with 2-4 Stanford at home, but while Notre Dame was dismantling one of the worst teams in the ACC, most of the other contenders listed above were playing a tougher opponent. Notre Dame’s win against North Carolina got a slight boost after the Tar Heels earned a road victory against previously undefeated Pitt, and the season-opening triumph against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field will continue to be viewed favorably by the committee. The Badgers were on a bye but have won four straight since losing to the Irish.
Why they could be higher: The Irish continue to pass the eye test and did it again Saturday without one of the best defenders in the country, as Leonard Moore was out with a concussion. Two road victories plus the neutral-site game against Wisconsin boost Notre Dame’s résumé, but how the Irish have won — by double digits every time — also matters in the room.
Need to know: The Irish will have their toughest test to date Saturday at BYU. If Notre Dame loses that game on the road and at home to Miami on Nov. 7, its spot in the playoff will be in question — even though the Irish are guaranteed a place if they finish in the committee’s top 12 on Selection Day. The committee would scrutinize the rest of Notre Dame’s schedule and compare it with other two-loss contenders. It would open the door to debate whether the Irish were one of the top 12 teams.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 59% chance to win, and it projects Notre Dame to capture each of its remaining games.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns’ offensive flaws finally cost them. The loss to Oklahoma drops Texas from the No. 1 spot, which it was hanging on to because of its résumé in spite of clear deficiencies. The head-to-head win against Ohio State keeps the Longhorns ahead of the Buckeyes as long as their records are the same, but the 27-24 loss to the Sooners further illustrated that Texas isn’t the most complete team in the country. The Longhorns lost the turnover battle, converted just three of 14 third-down attempts and racked up eight penalties. The win against Ohio State is still one of the best in the country, and the road victory against the Vols will continue to impress the committee even though Tennessee, with backup quarterback George MacIntyre, struggled mightily to beat Arkansas.
Why they could be lower: Through five games, Texas is averaging 5.4 yards per play and 3.7 yards per carry, and Arch Manning’s QBR on third downs is 38.1 (out of 100) — all of which rank worse than 100th nationally. The Longhorns are one of the least explosive offenses in the country, and they get in their own way with 9.42 yards per penalty (also below 100).
Need to know: Though it’s not an excuse to lose, the selection committee does consider the intangibles that go along with rivalry games. Past committee chairs have talked about this publicly, and given that the game came down to a field goal, Texas can still overcome it. The reality, though, is that it has got to play better to do that against the No. 22 remaining schedule.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at LSU. Texas doesn’t face Alabama or Georgia during the regular season, so the road trip to Death Valley will likely present the toughest opponent left.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have won four straight since their Week 2 loss at Texas, including Saturday’s home victory against a beleaguered Maryland team. The Oct. 3 road triumph at Iowa increased in value this week after the Hawkeyes won decisively at Washington 41-24. A road win against a ranked Big Ten team could be a separating factor in the committee meeting room to give Ohio State an edge over Notre Dame and Indiana even though the Buckeyes have a loss. The committee isn’t going to penalize Ohio State for a one-point loss on the road to what should still be one of its top teams.
Why they could be lower: The Buckeyes are going to be stuck behind Texas as long as their records are the same because the committee will likely honor the head-to-head result. If Ohio State is going to drop behind Indiana, it will be determined on the field in Week 7, but the gap between Ohio State and Indiana’s schedule strength right now is wide enough that the committee would likely give the edge to Ohio State. There could be some in the room, though, who would honor the Hoosiers’ undefeated record instead, especially after the Texas loss.
Need to know: Ohio State is about to enter its season-defining stretch with back-to-back road trips to Indiana and USC followed by a Nov. 7 home game against Oregon. A second defeat wouldn’t knock the Buckeyes out of the playoff, but it would open the door for debate and could prove costly during the seeding process. The first four seeds receive first-round byes, and teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8 earn first-round home games.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 at Indiana. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 53.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer was irate on the sideline Saturday night after officials didn’t call pass interference late in the fourth quarter, a decision that ultimately kept the Tide out of field goal range. The selection committee gets into all of the nuances and would be aware of the impact of the non-call late in the game. Without the win, though, the Tide would likely fall behind Texas and Ohio State in the one-loss pecking order because it doesn’t have a statement win to compensate for it. Ohio State has a road victory against a ranked Iowa team, and Texas has the head-to-head against the Buckeyes.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could reward the Hoosiers for their undefeated record, but they could also consider Alabama’s road victory at Kentucky, which beat LSU on Saturday night. If the committee members were to have Alabama lower, it would be because they believed IU is a better team despite its schedule.
Need to know: Alabama could face Georgia again in the SEC championship game, which would be a similar situation to last season. It’s one thing to land a CFP bid as a three-loss SEC runner-up, though, and another to try to win a debate as a three-loss team that didn’t play in the title game. If Bama is going to stay in contention, it’s going to have to win on the road in the second half of the season.
Toughest remaining game: The Tide just played its toughest game of the season, and ESPN’s FPI gives Alabama at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games. The Nov. 7 trip to LSU is the closest thing to a coin toss, as it’s on the road and the Tigers are a better team right now than Tennessee, which is up next.
Why they could be here: Indiana has played the worst schedule to date of any of the top 12 teams ranked here, and statistically it’s behind the teams ranked above it. The Hoosiers needed a comeback to hold off undefeated Nebraska in a tough road win the selection committee would value — probably more than BYU’s home victory against Arizona. It was the Hoosiers’ toughest test to date, and the connection between quarterback Josh Hoover and transfer receiver Nick Marsh was again on display, along with game-changing plays from the IU defense. With back-to-back Big Ten road wins, IU is slowly building its CFP résumé, and the Week 4 win against Northwestern is looking even better as the Wildcats are now 4-1.
Why they could be lower: The committee would realize that Indiana’s stats are inflated in part because of a 55-0 win against Howard of the FCS and a 38-0 win against Western Kentucky — two teams with losing records. IU has two wins against Power 4 teams above .500 (Northwestern and Nebraska).
Need to know: Ohio State and Indiana have the best chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 vs. Ohio State. This will be Indiana’s best chance to impress the committee during the regular season. The Buckeyes will be the highest-ranked opponent it faces.
Why they could be here: The Cougars aren’t as dominant as some of the teams ranked ahead of them — statistically or on film — and it’s not like they’ve been playing juggernauts. BYU’s schedule to date ranks No. 92, and Arizona is the only Power 4 opponent it has faced with a winning record. The Cougars keep finding ways to win, though, including Friday when running back LJ Martin was sidelined with a lower-body injury. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier threw for a season-high 329 yards and two touchdowns while also running for a career-best 109 yards. It was a complete game against a mediocre Iowa State (3-3) team, and the Cougars’ defense has now held back-to-back Big 12 opponents to 10 points each.
Why they could be lower: The committee would have concerns about BYU’s schedule to this point. Though other contenders have faced similarly weak lineups, Notre Dame, Miami and Ohio State have compensated for it by ranking among the top five in the country in total efficiency while BYU was No. 12 after five games.
Need to know: BYU doesn’t have to beat Notre Dame in Week 7 to reach the CFP because the Big 12 champion is guaranteed a spot. If BYU finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, though, with a loss to the Irish and another in the conference championship game, it will have a hard time finishing in the committee’s top 12 on Selection Day. It would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Notre Dame and the Big 12 champion, and it would be relying on a win at Utah to carry its résumé.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 vs. Notre Dame. This will reveal which team to take more seriously as a CFP contender, and the head-to-head result will be critical during the seeding process if their records remain comparable. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 75% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Rebels’ star power — quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy — is their greatest asset. Their best win is against LSU, which remains significant for the head-to-head tiebreaker. The season-opening win against Louisville is respectable, but the Cardinals are 3-3 and unranked. Saturday’s lopsided win against Vandy (3-3) won’t carry the same weight in the committee room as it did a year ago when the Commodores were a CFP bubble team.
Why they could be lower: The stunning 52-28 loss at Florida on Sept. 26 looks even worse following the Gators’ two-game slide since. And although the Ole Miss defense played measurably better Saturday against Vandy, it has been one of the worst scoring defenses in the country through the first half of the season, consistently allowing big plays, missing tackles and failing to get stops on third downs.
Need to know: One of the reasons Texas was excluded from the CFP last year was because it suffered a bad loss to Florida. The committee strongly considers who teams lose to and how. It will help Ole Miss if the Gators can stop their skid, though it might get worse considering Florida still has to play Texas and Georgia. Of course, that will be a moot point if Ole Miss itself can’t handle Texas and Georgia.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 24 at Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 88.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Bruins have three Power 4 road wins, including a 54-3 cross-country drubbing of Maryland followed by Saturday’s 17-15 victory at Oregon. Beating a ranked Oregon team in Autzen Stadium legitimizes UCLA’s place in the ranking, as it’s notoriously one of the most difficult venues in the country for visitors. This was UCLA’s first win there since 2004. It was also its first win this season against a Power 4 opponent with a winning record. UCLA entered the Oregon game with the 113th-ranked schedule in the country.
Why they could be lower: The committee might not think Oregon’s that good. The Ducks had seven turnovers (and at one point had lost the ball more times than they had made a first down). The group would also know that Oregon was down to its third-string quarterback with Dante Moore still sidelined because of a concussion and his backup, Dylan Raiola, benched in the second half after completing just 32% of his passes to start the game.
Need to know: UCLA had a 1% chance to reach the playoff entering the season, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, but that skyrocketed to 33% following the win against Oregon. UCLA is now favored in each of its next five games, according to ESPN Analytics, before ending its season at Michigan and at home against USC. The Bruins’ next three games are at home against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nevada.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. USC. ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 55.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: UCLA’s win against Oregon is better than Utah’s best win, which was Sept. 26 at Iowa State. The Utes haven’t beaten a ranked opponent yet, let alone a Power 4 team above .500. And as good as Utah’s scoring defense has been, UCLA’s 10 interceptions lead the nation. Still, Utah has ranked in the top 10 in total efficiency, and quarterback Devon Dampier has been one of the most efficient players in the country.
Why they could be higher: Some committee members could be more impressed by Utah on film, especially its defense. Dampier has been better than UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who didn’t return in the second half against Oregon because of a lower leg injury. The committee considers injuries to key players, and Iamaleava’s status is uncertain. But the group ranks teams based on how they look with the players they have — and UCLA backup Ty Dieffenbach was good enough to win at Oregon.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI gives Utah at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. BYU. This game will reveal the Big 12’s leading contender for a CFP bid, as the conference champion is guaranteed a spot in the playoff — unless Texas Tech has something to say about it. The Red Raiders don’t face BYU or Utah during the regular season.
Why they could be here: The Wildcats have a rare combination: a top-10 win and a top-10 loss. Their lone stumble this season was in Week 2 against Alabama. The selection committee looks at who teams lost to, and Kentucky’s loss to the Tide would be viewed more favorably than Mizzou’s loss to Mississippi State, which was hammered by Alabama. Kentucky has won back-to-back overtime SEC games, including on the road in Week 5 at South Carolina, which just beat Florida, and Saturday against what was a top-10 LSU team. Kentucky is one of the top teams in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which has aligned historically with the CFP playoff teams. It would be more difficult for the average top-25 team to achieve the same record as Kentucky against the same opponents than most of the top 12 teams listed here. Kentucky’s strength of schedule to date is also significantly better than that of Texas Tech and Missouri.
Why they could be lower: With LSU, Florida and Oregon now two-loss teams, the door is open for the committee to consider multiple contenders here, including undefeated Texas Tech and one-loss Mizzou. Texas Tech also has a win against a ranked opponent in Houston, which beat Kansas State on Saturday night, and Mizzou’s best win is against Florida.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Kentucky would get bumped out of the bracket for the highest-ranked team from the Group of 6 on Selection Day.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at Missouri. Three of the next five games are on the road, including Saturday at Oklahoma and Nov. 7 at Tennessee. If Kentucky is going to stay relevant in the CFP race, it needs to avoid a second loss before heading to Mizzou.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Notre Dame
No. 4 Texas
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 UCLA at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 BYU (Big 12 champ)
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Ohio State winner vs. No. 4 Texas
No. 11 Utah/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
No. 10 UCLA/No. 7 Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Ole Miss/No. 8 BYU winner vs. No. 1 Georgia
